Brent Harris Elliott Wave
Futures Market Advisory Service

Quarterly Report Sample Page

Corn (Oct. 10, 2005)

Since the long-term pattern in corn continues to call for an eventual penetration of the 2000/(A)-wave low (-1.74), AND a completed, wave-(B) rally can already be labeled at the 2004 peak (3.35 1/4), the SLIGHTLY PREFERRED wave-count indicates that a SUPERCYCLE-WAVE-(C) decline is unfolding now. In which case, considering that the wave-III-of-(C) section down just started from the July 2005 high (2.63 1/4), prices will likely remain in a steady DOWNTREND until we AT LEAST reach the 1.79 support level. Given the length of the April-December 2004/wave-I decline, however, the more likely scenario is that wave-III will carry to the next lower support level, or 1.71½-to-1.65. At which point, corn should trace-out a SMALLISH, 5-to-7 month/wave-IV rally, BEFORE the stage is set for the FINAL DECLINE, or wave-V-of-(C). It should be duly noted, however, as is the case with the pattern in soybeans, it is also quite possible that the “orthodox” peak of wave-(B) in corn has NOT yet occurred. In essence, because the decline from the 2004 top in corn has so far traced-out ONLY a 3-wave pattern, there’s a reasonable chance that we still need a FINAL, wave-C section up, i.e., BEFORE A HUGE, SUPERCYCLE-WAVE-(C) decline actually occurs. To that end, since a nearly completed, (13)-wave decline from the July 2005 top is now just about in place, the action over the next several weeks will be EXTREMELY CRITICAL. If the next multi-week rally in December corn happens to trace-out a 5-wave/impulse-pattern, especially in conjunction with a SIMILAR, 5-wave pattern in soybeans, then the odds will favor a substantial, wave-C rally...now. Under this interpretation, a good-trending, 5-or-9-wave advance should remain in progress until the nearby contract AT LEAST achieves the 3.19 ½-3.22 level. On the other hand, however, in the event the next [multi-week advance] subdivides into a BEARISH, (a)-(b)-(c) pattern, then we’ll obviously have to conclude that SUPERCYCLE-WAVE-(C) down is indeed alive and well. Key long-term resistance for corn is at 2.18-2.19 ½ and 2.29-2.30, with the current support at 2.01 and 1.95-1.91.

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